Unconventional Wisdom

Nobody's Noticing...

...but Charlie Crist is cratering in Florida.  If there's a wave, as it looks like there will be, the Democrats will win the governorship.  This will be the biggest surprise of 2006.

An Eternity in Politics

A month is an eternity in politics.  Eighteen days is an eternity in politics.  A week is an eternity in politics.  A day is an eternity in politics.  Then, suddenly, the election is over.

The favorite comment of Republican pundits right now is that however much time between now and the election is an eternity.  That is true if eternity is denied, as it is by Dictionary.com, as "a period of time that seems very long, esp. on account of being tedious and annoying."  But as these pundits mean eternity, there surely is a time when that will cease to be true.  When it becomes too late.  Then the election really is lost.

I'd love to be wrong, but I'd say that point came when the Foley story broke.  At that point, there were about six weeks left, and Republicans needed all of that six week eternity to turn the election around.  Foley cost two weeks and destroyed the Bush-comeback meme.  Now there's only three weeks.  Not an eternity for Rick Santorum or Conrad Burns or Mike Dewine.  And not an eternity for the national Republican party, which is faces a 1994-like head-win that it must overcome, lest all the pre-election polls seem understated.

The Democrats do come out to vote.  They did in the 1998 midterm debacle.  Republicans do stay home when demoralized by the media; again, see 1998.

Corker and Allen may be ahead, but they need to pull ahead significantly or they will lose.  Chafee will lose.  New Jersey -- well, New Jersey offers hope, but that is so often true, and we are so often disappointed.

Here in the Federal City, the Republican mood is gloom.  Ken Mehlman, obcessed with metrics, is reported to be feeling "confident."  I can tell you that those close to him, however, are not, and they shouldn't be.

On the plus sign, Joe Lieberman will win.  Which is a pretty weak plus side.

Whistling on the Way to the Grave Yard

There's a story out there today that the Republicans least concerned about the coming election are George Bush and Karl Rove, both of whom purportedly believe that Republicans will be in control of both houses of Congress come January.  Other sources wonder, do they know something we don't know, or are they just out of touch?

I think it's the latter.  It's not just them.  Last night, on the charity circuit here in the federal city, I ran into a fundraiser for the NRSC.  He's been at the committee for three years, and he told me his mood, and the Committee's mood, was not gloomy.  Why?  There is a hugh disconnect, he said, between the Beltway media and the rest of the country, especially those who vote.  The people smart enought to actually vote this year will vote Republican.  But what about the polls?  The likely voter models, he suggested, are all wrong.  His example -- Rick Santorum.  Santorum has down by this much in 1994, and he won.  And Jim Talent was down by four points in the last poll in 2002, and he won.

Of course I'd like to believe all this, but I don't.  It's not 1994 for Rick Santorum, because the wave is coming against him, not for him.  And he isn't the young-turk Rick Santorum of 1994; he's the guy who probably would have lost in 2000 if the Democrats could have found  a decent candidate.  The Talent example works better, because it's easier to believe that Talent could pull it out, but again, there was no wave working against him.

In the final weeks of October, there may be a small Republican comeback in the polls.  Loyal Republicans will come home.  People may seem to wake up (a little) to the prospect to Nancy Pelosi.  But this phenomenon happens in many elections -- Dukakis's surge in the final weeks against Bush 41 before losing 40 states, Bob Dole moving to within one point in the Gallup poll of likely voters, Bush 41's late surge against Clinton in 1992, cut short on the final Friday by Lawrence Walsh.  Most memorably, though, this occurred in 1994, when the Democrats appeared to come back in late October when they finally got negative and focused on the Contract with America.  This come-back will not really manifest itself at the polls.  There is a wave out there.  It is among independents, and it will drown out Republicans coming home.  It began with Katrina, rose on gas prices, and relief came too late.  And the Democrats did not do something stupid like the Contract of America (which I believe actually cost Republicans seats in 1994).  They ran a negative campaign, devoid of substance, and in some environments, that works.

So, don't believe the tightening of the polls.  It's too late.  Dark times are ahead.