A month is an eternity in politics. Eighteen days is an eternity in politics. A week is an eternity in politics. A day is an eternity in politics. Then, suddenly, the election is over.
The favorite comment of Republican pundits right now is that however much time between now and the election is an eternity. That is true if eternity is denied, as it is by Dictionary.com, as "a period of time that seems very long, esp. on account of being tedious and annoying." But as these pundits mean eternity, there surely is a time when that will cease to be true. When it becomes too late. Then the election really is lost.
I'd love to be wrong, but I'd say that point came when the Foley story broke. At that point, there were about six weeks left, and Republicans needed all of that six week eternity to turn the election around. Foley cost two weeks and destroyed the Bush-comeback meme. Now there's only three weeks. Not an eternity for Rick Santorum or Conrad Burns or Mike Dewine. And not an eternity for the national Republican party, which is faces a 1994-like head-win that it must overcome, lest all the pre-election polls seem understated.
The Democrats do come out to vote. They did in the 1998 midterm debacle. Republicans do stay home when demoralized by the media; again, see 1998.
Corker and Allen may be ahead, but they need to pull ahead significantly or they will lose. Chafee will lose. New Jersey -- well, New Jersey offers hope, but that is so often true, and we are so often disappointed.
Here in the Federal City, the Republican mood is gloom. Ken Mehlman, obcessed with metrics, is reported to be feeling "confident." I can tell you that those close to him, however, are not, and they shouldn't be.
On the plus sign, Joe Lieberman will win. Which is a pretty weak plus side.